2022 Will Be the Year of 5G

No mobile standard has generated as much fanfare as 5G has managed to, and rightly so. Last year was all about talking up the next generation. However, this year it all comes down to actually rolling back sleeves and getting down with it.

Here’s to 2022, the year defined by 5G.

The 5G Hype Train

The definition of 5G changes from person to person, and ranges from “a waste of time” to “the next best thing in telecom”. However, like all the things in life, 5G falls somewhere in the middle. For all intents and purposes, it is the next step in telecommunications. And to be honest, almost no one that uses a phone has not heard of the next-gen networks. Almost every one of us has heard of 5G and has read, heard, or seen the word plastered all over the internet. India has it no different; 5G has captured the country’s imagination like no other generation before.

One thing’s for sure; the industry is enthusiastic about 5G and what it can do. Not only will it push telecom and its related industries to the next level, but it will also open up new avenues of network applications that were limited by the speed before. From Industry 4.0 applications such as smart manufacturing to network slicing and AR-enhanced experiences, it will make a lot possible.

Right now, the world is looking at another transitionary period; shifting from 4G to 5G. According to projections, during this year, 5G subscriptions will cross the 1-billion mark; by 2026, half of the population of the Earth will have a 5G connection. By the time the decade ends, the new network will become ubiquitous.

Mark the Date: 5G in India in 2022-23

To the government’s and the industry’s credit, the work has been expedited and it looks like 5G might come sooner than expected. However, it does seem as though the government has placed a difficult deadline on the telcos and their partners. As the industry leaders have established, the rollout should be expected as soon as August this year, most likely on Independence Day, 2022.

“The variables have to be addressed and optimized before saying when 5G will come out. I think, if the variables are sorted out, we will be able to roll out 5G by August. If they don’t, it will take more time. But we have emphasized to the government to address the issues, and they are being addressed quickly. If they get sorted, by mid-August, we will roll out 5G”, Lt. Gen. (Retd.) Dr. SP Kochhar spoke at DQ DeepTech 2021.

Of course, all of this depends on the 5G spectrum auction, for which the government first needs to finalize the National Frequency Allocation Policy. Since the NFAP is a work in progress, the government has to pull off a miracle to hold the auction in April, May, or even June. The later it gets, the more difficult it becomes for telcos to roll out 5G in August.

The general public sentiment in India has been ambivalent. Many have questioned the need for a network upgrade when we had one half a decade ago. What’s more, India’s connectivity issues make it seem that a 5G rollout will only paper over the cracks. Its potential, though, makes it an important exercise for the government to facilitate rollout. The government wants to hold a spectrum auction in April-May 2022, as it will take the telcos at least a quarter to set up preliminary networks across the country. However, as the industry has repeatedly stated, a year-end deadline would have been more sensible.

Along with this, at the Union Budget 2022, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman announced that the government will hold the 5G spectrum auction this year, with a rollout to be completed within 2022-23. So, we finally know when the new networks go live.

Who’s Getting it First?

The government has been working on facilitating the rollout of 5G. Apart from enabling the ongoing 5G trials, the government also initiated a research project called the “Indigenous 5G Testbed Project”. In the project, 8 agencies, including IIT Bombay, Delhi, Hyderabad, Madras, and Kanpur, along with IISc Bangalore, SAMEER, and CEWIT have been developing 5G since 2018.

As such, the cities that will get it first are Ahmadabad, Bangalore, Chandigarh, Chennai, Delhi, Gandhinagar, Gurugram, Hyderabad, Jamnagar, Kolkata, Lucknow, Mumbai, and Pune. So, if you live in any of those cities, the time is ripe to get a 5G phone (or not). The list was not compiled based on any randomness; Bharti Airtel, Vodafone Idea, and Reliance Jio have already set up trial networks in Gurugram, Pune, Gandhinagar, and Kolkata.

While these cities will see a 5G rollout as soon as August this year, the rest of the country should follow up soon. However, going by the usual proliferation rate, we can expect the new network to reach every nook and cranny only by the end of 2023. Even so, the government has only finalized the problematic mid-band spectrum for 5G; it is on track to hold a spectrum auction within the next few months.

What’s Happening Right Now?

Since June last year, 13 telcos, gear makers, and technology partners have been running 5G trials across multiple locations in the country. All of the telcos have been looking at multiple network applications and developing use cases.

Each one of the telcos has a clearly defined direction of where the use cases are going. For instance, Bharti Airtel launched the #5GForBusiness initiative and focused its efforts on developing use cases meant for enterprise applications. The telco had said that it has partnered with the likes of Accenture, AWS, CISCO, Ericsson, Google Cloud, Nokia, and TCS. Given its capabilities, specifically the low latency and high network capacity, Airtel now has set its sights on enterprise customers. These customers can deliver high financial dividends, and to some extent, bragging rights. After all, India’s telecom market has a history of one-upmanship, and Airtel wants to one-up everyone in the 5G department.

Vodafone Idea, on the other hand, focused its efforts on speed. Vi claimed to have hit a top speed of 9.85 Gbps on its 5G network, using the E-band boosters. However, the telco has also been working to develop enterprise solutions. Vi partnered with L&T to test 5G-based Smart City solutions. Under the partnership, the companies will create 5G use cases related to IoT and AI, using L&T’s Smart City platform – Fusion. The companies will run the pilot project in Pune, where Vi is running its trials.

Reliance Jio has been working across the board, even piloting the Voice & SMS services over 5G VoNR, becoming the first telco to do so. Jio SVP Sanjay Bhatnagar had said that the telco has also tested the interoperability of VoLTE and VoNR. Also, the telco has been bringing out multiple use cases and testing network applications at its test site in Gandhinagar, Gujarat.

The Spectrum Auction

TRAI has reported in its consultation paper that the DoT has asked for prices in the 526-698 MHz, 700 MHz, 800 MHz, 900 MHz, 1800 MHz, 2100 MHz, 2300 MHz, 2500 MHz, 3300-

3670 MHz and 24.25 – 28.5 GHz bands for 5G. Also, two new bands will debut at the spectrum auction; the 526-698 MHz and the mmWave bands. However, there has not been any official date on the same. The government wants to hold the auction as early as March, but no later than June.

Currently, the only point of contention is the price point. The telcos have demanded a huge reduction in spectrum prices, and the TRAI has recommended lower prices. However, the government has not relented yet. Per the consultation paper, TRAI uses a variety of methods to decide on the spectrum prices. First, it looks at international spectrum pricing, and then, it looks at the technical efficiency factor. Basically, a technical efficiency factor defines how a particular spectrum band is better than a benchmark spectrum band. For instance, the regulator decided on the base price of the 700 MHz spectrum by setting the 1800 MHz band as the benchmark. Then, it compared the two bands for technical superiority and priced the former band accordingly.

As such, TRAI has acknowledged the importance of mmWave in India. In clause 2.39, TRAI said, As per a report on “The Impacts of mmWave 5G in India” published by GSMA in October 2020, the mmWave spectrum, in particular, will play a crucial role in enabling the high-speed and ultra-low-latency features required by many 5G applications. India will benefit significantly from mmWave-enabled 5G. Over the period 2025–2040, it has been estimated that mmWave-enabled 5G will deliver $150 billion in additional GDP for India.

Therefore, TRAI has recommended DoT set a “balanced intermediate reserve price” so that the government can monetize the spectrum effectively. Furthermore, TRAI said that the price should not be too high so that the TSPs can participate in the auction; the telcos have repeatedly warned of low participation if the price does not come down.

5G For All

Right now, the world is sitting on the cusp of another revolution. With the number of devices increasing every year, IoT will take off, bringing with it a host of personal and enterprise applications. Along with this, customers inherently are changing. Only half a decade ago, no one could imagine the things that we can do these days; the COVID-19 pandemic would have been multiple times more disruptive in 2015.

But with the virtually unlimited things you can do with good internet, the connectivity demand will only rise. 4G built the foundations for the app economy; 5G will propel that. In the next 5 years, with how ubiquitous social media and on-demand video content have become, network traffic will grow by as much as 50%. Give it a decade, and that same traffic would be 10 times higher.

Telcos are sitting on an opportunity that will define the next decade, and their investment in 5G networks should reflect that. No one can deliver the kind of value 5G will require by building a 5G network over a 4G core. The time is now to move towards a 5G core and build a network proactively, with the end-user in mind. A network that can support the multilayered and complex digital lives people are leading these days. A few years ago, pre-4G, customers valued simplicity. This reflects upon the evolution that 4G sparked, and 5G would carry forward.

Whatever the end goal might be, this year will mark the beginning of something good in India.

hemantka@cybermedia.co.in