5G to account for nearly 50% of mobile subscriptions by 2028: Ericsson Mobility Report

• Global 5G mobile subscriptions expected to reach five billion by the end of 2028
• Fixed Wireless Access forecast estimated to top 300 million connections within six years considering India’s accelerated FWA plans
•  Average data traffic per smartphone in the India region at 25Gb/month is the highest globally

The November 2022 edition of the Ericsson Mobility Report is out and according to the report, global 5G mobile subscriptions remain on track to top one billion by the end of this year, and five billion by the end of 2028, despite current and developing economic challenges in many parts of the world. The November 2022 edition of the Ericsson Mobility Report also forecasts global fixed wireless access (FWA) connections to grow faster than previously expected.

FWA – the wireless alternative to wireline broadband connectivity for homes and businesses – is one of the major early 5G use cases, particularly in regions with unserved or underserved broadband markets.

The report further suggests that, driven in part by accelerated FWA plans in India, and expected growth in other emerging markets, FWA is forecast to grow at 19 percent year-on-year through 2022-28, and top 300 million connections by the end of 2028.

More than three-quarters of communications service providers (CSPs) surveyed in more than 100 countries currently offer FWA services. Almost one-third of CSPs are offering FWA over 5G, compared to one-fifth a year ago. Almost 40 percent of the new 5G FWA launches in the past 12 months have been in emerging markets

According to the report, on 5G itself, about 110 million subscriptions were added globally between July-September 2022, bringing the total to about 870 million. As forecast in previous reports, 5G is still expected to reach one billion subscriptions by the end of this year – two years faster than 4G did, following its launch.

The statistic reinforces 5G as the fastest-scaling mobile connectivity generation. Key drivers include the timely availability of devices from multiple vendors, with prices falling faster than for 4G, and China’s large early 5G deployments.

North America and North East Asia continue to see strong 5G growth, with 5G subscription penetration in the regions expected to reach about 35 percent by end of 2022.

Globally, almost 230 CSPs have launched 5G services to date, with more than 700 5G smartphone models announced or launched commercially.

By the end of 2028, five billion 5G subscriptions are forecast globally, accounting for 55 percent of all subscriptions. In that same timeframe, 5G population coverage is projected to reach 85 percentwhile 5G networks are expected to carry around 70 percent of mobile traffic and account for all contemporary traffic growth.

Fredrik Jejdling, Executive Vice President and Head of Networks, Ericsson, said: “Communications Service providers continue to deploy 5G and the momentum for Fixed Wireless Access is accelerating. Moreover, global mobile network data traffic is practically doubling every two years. As described in this edition of the Ericsson Mobility Report, service providers are taking actions to deploy the latest generation of energy-efficient radio hardware and software, increase the use of renewable energy sources, and operate site infrastructure intelligently to reduce the environmental impact.”

As per the report, global 4G subscription numbers also continue to rise, growing by about 41 million between July and September 2022. Global 4G subscriptions are expected to reach a peak of about 5.2 billion around the end of this year.

Overall mobile subscriptions are expected to top 8.4 billion by the end of 2022, and 9.2 billion by the end of 2028. Most subscriptions are associated with smartphones. At the end of 2022, 6.6 billion smartphone subscriptions are estimated, accounting for about 79 percent of all mobile phone subscriptions

India Outlook

The report says that rapid 5G deployments by Indian service providers will enable 5G subscriptions to reach around 31 million by the end of 2022 and 690 million by the end of 2028. 5G will represent around 53 percent of mobile subscriptions at the end of 2028. 4G subscriptions are expected to peak in 2024 at around 930 million and will thereafter decline to an estimated 570 million by the year 2028.

Mobile networks continue to play a pivotal role in driving social and economic inclusion. Nitin Bansal, Head of Ericsson India and Head of Network Solutions for South east Asia, Oceania and India, Ericsson stated that,” 5G will play a crucial role in achieving India’s digital inclusion goals especially for bringing broadband to rural and remote homes. In fact, enhanced mobile broadband is serving as the foundation for the Government’s “Digital India” vision by enabling people to access public services."

Enhanced mobile broadband (eMBB) and fixed wireless access (FWA) are expected to be the early use-cases for 5G in India which will help address the concern of the limited fixed broadband penetration levels in the country and improve the data experience while on the move.“

The statistics from the report state, the average data traffic per smartphone in the India region is the highest globally. It is projected to grow from 25 GB per month in 2022 to around 54 GB per month in 2028 – a CAGR of 14 percent. Total mobile data traffic in the India region is estimated to grow from 18 EB per month in 2022 to 53 EB per month in 2028, growing at a CAGR of 19 percent. This is driven by high growth in the number of smartphone users and the increase in average usage per smartphone. The smartphone subscriptions in India as a percentage of total mobile subscriptions are expected to grow from 77 percent in 2022 to 94 percent in 2028.

The Ericsson Mobility Report also highlighted the importance of reducing environmental impact. According to the report, the telecommunications sector has a key role to play in addressing global sustainability goals, both by reducing its own emissions and through its potential to reduce carbon emissions across other industries.

To reduce the environmental impact, the growing data traffic needs to be managed with smart network modernization combined with a balanced approach to network performance, stated the report.