India can see First 5G Networks by as soon as Independence Day, 2022

According to Business Standard, the government has reached out to telcos to launch 5G networks in a few key cities by as early as Independence Day, 2022.

5G Networks, Coming Soon?

On one hand, it seems doable. However, it depends on how fast the government and the telcos move. First, a list of things that have to be done before 5G networks can go live.

Physical infrastructure is the most important aspect of a network. Therefore, the telcos need to sort that out first, before doing anything else. An executive at a telecom gear maker, said, "it can be achieved in some cities as it will take us 4-6 weeks to deploy a network, once the equipment or components have reached India. But to do so, we need commercial contracts with telcos to be finalized by January so we know what orders they are placing and in which circles or cities. We have to activate our supply chain, especially as there is a chip shortage".

As such, the telcos have barely a month to finalize their 5G rollout strategy and finalize the orders. Incidentally, the executive added that telcos can tweak the final orders as late as April. The government will, most likely, conduct a 5G spectrum auction in April, so, the telcos will have to customize their gear according to the spectrum they buy.

There's a catch; the telcos can only meet the deadline basing their network around one type of spectrum. Anything complicated and the telcos run the risk of overshooting the deadline. In that regard, though, the telcos have been running 5G trials using a variety of 5G spectrum. Recently, Bharti Airtel had successfully completed 5G trials over the 700 MHz spectrum, with Nokia. The telco achieved coverage of 40 km and a successful 5G connection between two sites on the outskirts of Kolkata. Also, Vodafone Idea will most likely partner with Ericsson to conduct a similar trial in Pune.

It seems doable, but there are a few issues to deal with.

Cutting It Too Close?

There are a few problems with that deadline. though.

First, the equipment-related issues. For now, the NCSC has not created a list of "trusted products"; it recently decided on four companies, Ericsson, Nokia, Tejas Networks, and Cisco, for "trusted sources". However, the coordinator will release the same in December, which would give telcos just enough time to finalize and place their orders with the respective gear suppliers.

Telcos are apprehensive as well; an executive at a telco said, "it's a difficult deadline even though it is informal. One can at the most do one city or two or in an area within the city just to demonstrate that 5G has arrived. It will also depend on auctions - the base price finally agreed upon. A more meaningful deadline would be the end of the year as one could cover key cities in a circle".

What's more, the 5G device ecosystem remains a bit immature. India is one of the largest 5G smartphones markets in the world without a 5G network. According to CyberMedia Research, by the end of 2021, India will have 25-30 million 5G smartphones. That reflects on a good start of 5G proliferation. However, given that 4G devices will cross the 800 million mark by the end of FY22, it goes without saying that while 5G has made a good start, yet that’s it. It has just started.

For spectrum, there are many problems

Core policies such as the National Frequency Allocation Policy and the Spacecom Policy are still on the drawing board. Therefore, telcos have next to no clarity regarding spectrum availability and the quantum of spectrum. One thing they have clarity on; that the base price is too high. DoT has recently sent another reference regarding the latter, and TRAI has asked for information on the former, but so far, work has been progressing slowly. Given that India's independence day falls in August, the government needs to hold an auction in April-May. Any later, and the deadline becomes harder to achieve with any meaning.

Sources say TRAI's report might take until March after which it has to be cleared by the cabinet. The telcos have a couple more issues with the way DoT plans to conduct auctions. The telecom department has been considering a staggered spectrum auction, going with the mid-band spectrum first, and then selling other spectra in subsequent auctions. For now, the telcos have asked the government to auction all available spectrum bands simultaneously, to better plan the 5G rollout.

The mmWave band remains another difficult issue to sort out, with no consensus between the telcos and the satcom operators.

Should We Book Our Dates?

One tends to agree with the telcos' view; a year-end date would have been easier. However, the telcos are no strangers to short deadlines.

The general public sentiment in India has been ambivalent towards 5G. Many have questioned the need for a network upgrade when we had one half a decade ago. What’s more, India’s connectivity issues make it seem that a 5G rollout will only paper over the cracks. However, 5G’s potential makes it an important exercise for the government to facilitate rollout.

15th August 2021 might prove to be special in more ways than one if everything goes well.