Data discomfort: Why India’s data connectivity speeds are falling

In March 2023, the average speed of 5G Internet connectivity on mobile networks in India was nearly 294 megabits (Mbps) per second. Now, in what happens to be an out-of-turn twist of fate, the speeds have dropped by almost 19% in one year. The result? As of March 2024, the connectivity speed of 5G during the peak hours of content consumption in India fell to 239 Mbps, according to a report published by Internet statistics and services platform OpenSignal in June.

For the record, an average Internet bandwidth of over 200 Mbps cannot be qualified as ‘bad’ by any metric. However, a 19% drop within a year signifies a potential thorn in India’s push to project itself as a world-leading geography in terms of connectivity.

The figures are not reflected in only one report, either. Last month, a report by fellow Internet stats platform Ookla underlined a 15% sequential drop in average overall Internet speeds, considering both wired broadband and 4G/5G mobile Internet services between the June and September quarters this year. As per media reports citing Ookla, India’s average Internet speeds dropped to 91 Mbps in the recently concluded September quarter—down from 107 Mbps just one quarter ago.

A 19% drop within a year signifies a potential thorn in India’s push to project itself as a world-leading geography in terms of connectivity.

Reports corroborated the 19% drop in 5G speeds as recently as last month, stating that from an average all-day speed of 300 Mbps on 5G networks, India’s median speed for 5G connectivity has dropped to 243 Mbps.

As per Ookla, the fall led to India’s global ranking for Internet speeds sliding 14 places downward—to 26th in September, from 12th in June. For keen-eyed observers, this fall may have considerable repercussions.

WHY THE DROP IS CONCERNING

India’s 5G rollout commenced in October 2022, after the Centre auctioned 5G spectrum at a significant capex outlay from the telecom operators, namely Bharti Airtel and Reliance Jio. Since then, 5G subscribers in India have been growing, but they are still significantly lower than other network standards.

Swedish telecom infrastructure and technology firm Ericsson’s report on the Indian market from June this year underlined that 5G subscribers are growing at a canter and are projected to rise at a compounded annual rate of 38.5% to reach 840 million by 2029. By this time, 4G users in India are projected to drop to 410 million. This balance, however, was on the flipside at the start of this year, when India had 119 million 5G subscribers and 740 million 4G users in the country.

India’s average Internet speeds dropped to 91 Mbps in the recently concluded September quarter—down from 107 Mbps just one quarter ago.

Therefore, India’s telecom user base is expected to grow at only 6.4% annually, to rise to 1.25 billion by 2029, as per Ericsson—taking only 4G and 5G users into account. This suggests that with 5G adoption outpacing the overall influx of new 4G or 5G mobile Internet users in India by nearly 6x, a vast number of new users are expected to add to the existing load on India’s 5G networks—which are currently on offer only from Airtel and Jio.

This, in turn, explains why Internet speeds are falling. Since their rollout two years ago, the amount of spectrum, and therefore capacity, that India’s 5G networks have has remained finite. In place, many new users are joining the 5G fray regularly. This adds load to the networks, wherein the per-user bandwidth availability is declining—thus explaining why India’s 5G connectivity speeds are dropping.

In the long run, this could pose a challenge. A senior advisor to Indian telecom operators, who requested anonymity, said, “For now, the 5G bandwidth on both private networks is still good. However, with the kind of growth expected in 5G networks, India will likely need more spectrum on the network and, in turn, need telcos to further invest in the network to offer a usage experience worthy of 5G network standards.”

Failing to do so, the advisor said, will project a failure for India’s telecom journey in the near term. “It is unlikely that this would happen, especially since the Centre is keen to project India as a hub for foundational infrastructure and technologies for 6G networks and beyond. But, the falling speeds are early indicators of the need for India to expand its 5G coverage already.”

WHAT HAPPENS NEXT?

Most analysts and reports expect India’s average mobile Internet speeds to improve once state-run telecom operator Bharat Sanchar Nigam Limited rolls out its pan-India 4G service. The latter is expected to undercut the private telecom operators in terms of pricing, thus drawing users away from the private telcos trying to promote 5G services in India—which have even hiked tariffs recently to start reaping returns on their network investments.

Vodafone-Idea, the third private telco in India, is also expected to commence its 5G operations once it finds a route to fund its network expansion endeavour. This, in turn, could give an additional fillip to India’s mobile Internet journey.

Until then, however, India’s average mobile Internet speeds could face considerable challenges in the near term. With net mobile Internet subscribers expected to cross one billion users before the turn of the decade, India’s network speeds may play a key role in enabling the growth of its consumer electronics sector and meeting the projections of the growth of 5G services in the country.

By Vernika Awal

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