Q1 FY23 growth for Airtel,Vi predicted to be slack in contrast to hefty growth for Jio

Airtel's mobile revenue growth is expected to be 1.6 percent, compared to Jio's 3.3 percent and Vi's 0.6 percent.

Mobile revenue growth won't be particularly strong for private Indian telecom companies, Vodafone Idea (Vi) and Bharti Airtel (Airtel) in Q1 of Fiscal year 2023. According to a note by ICICI securities, Airtel and Vi are expected to see stagnant revenue growth in the fiscal first quarter, hurt by significant customer losses amidst rising mobile service costs and lesser 4G user additions as a result of lower sales of expensive smartphones.

In Q1 FY23, Airtel and Vi are expected to post user losses of around 3 million and 4 million respectively, due to higher costs for mobile services following a steep hike in mobile pricing in 2016. But despite the price increases, Jio reported 5 million new users now that the operator has finished its protracted purge of low-value customers.

The brokerage anticipates Reliance Jio to add more customers in the April-June time frame, after three consecutive quarters of decline and record hefty sequential revenue growth, ongoing benefit from last December's tariff increase given that the telecom market leader has a higher percentage of users on longer-validity plans. According to ICICI Securities, Except for Jio, which has many deep rooted users, telcos will experience little gain from the pricing increase enacted in December 2021.

The analysts predict that the one extra day that was included in the quarter will result in an increase in the average revenue per user(ARPU) number. Airtel's mobile revenue growth is expected to be 1.6 percent, compared to Jio's 3.3 percent and Vi's 0.6 percent.

In the manner of the report, Reliance Jio would have the largest gain in ARPU, up 4 percent to Rs 174, the survey claims. The ARPU for Airtel is anticipated to increase by 3.1% to Rs 184, while the ARPU for Vi is anticipated to increase by 2 percent to Rs 126.

With higher EBITDA (earnings before interest,tax,depreciation, and amortisation) and lesser interest prices from refinancing high-cost spectrum debt, Jio Platforms, led by Mukesh Ambani is also anticipated to post a 6.4 percent consecutive rise in net profit during the June quarter to approximately Rs 4,589 crore, its 19th back-to-back quarterly profit.

ICICI Securities predicts that a potential decline in operating income will cause Airtel's consolidated net profit for the June quarter to decline 4 percent to about Rs 1,927 crore. However, it is anticipated that the telco's consolidated revenue will increase by about 2.6% straight, which will be aided in part by revenue growth in Africa. It's India EBITDA (earnings before interest tax depreciation and amortization), as well as Africa EBITDA, is expected to rise but the consolidated EBITDA is predicted to dip by 1%.

Vi's June quarter loss is predicted by ICICI Securities to increase in series to Rs 6,647.1 crore, adversely affected by significant customer losses and lower operating revenue because of increased power prices, underscoring its ongoing inability to compete successfully with the other two more powerful competitors. As for VIL, the EBITDA is expected to dip 3.4% to Rs 45 billion and the net loss is calculated at Rs 6,647 crore.