6G expected by 2030 as 5G SA and advanced transform connectivity

The first 6G installations, which expand upon and enhance the capabilities of 5G SA and 5G Advanced, are anticipated in 2030. The November 2024 edition of the Ericsson Mobility Report predicts that 5G Standalone (5G SA) and 5G Advanced will be major priorities for communications service providers (CSPs) for the rest of the decade as they implement new capabilities to develop offerings focused on value delivery rather than data volume.

Although only 20% of the roughly 320 CSPs currently providing commercial 5G services are 5G SA, the Swedish telecom operator predicted that 60% of the 6.3 billion 5G subscriptions worldwide by 2030 will be 5G SA.

The densification of mid-band and 5G SA sites is viewed as a crucial trigger to fully realise 5G's potential, particularly its programmable and intelligent network capabilities, according to the Ericsson analysis. Only over 30% of locations worldwide currently have 5G mid-band installed.

Mobile data traffic

By 2030, it is anticipated that the total amount of mobile data traffic, including Fixed Wireless Access (FWA), would have nearly tripled. This expansion will be aided, in particular, by the broad use of generative AI (GenAI), particularly in the areas of video consumption and uplink traffic requirements. According to the survey, India, for instance, currently has the highest average monthly smartphone consumption, at 32GB, and by 2030, it is predicted to reach 66GB.

Gen AI

Both uplink and downlink network traffic are expected to be greatly impacted by generative AI's integration into smartphones and other devices, propelling mobile traffic growth above baseline projections. It is anticipated that 80 percent of all mobile data traffic worldwide would be carried by 5G networks by the end of 2030, up from 34 percent in 2024.

"Generative AI (GenAI) may have a significant impact on future mobile network traffic, especially through increased video consumption and changing uplink requirements," stated Umang Jindal, Head of Network Solutions, Software and Performance, Southeast Asia, Oceania, and India, Ericsson. In addition to the baseline increase, accelerated consumer adoption of Gen AI will result in a consistent rise in traffic. At 32 GB per month, India currently leads the world in smartphone consumption, and by 2030, that number is predicted to rise to 66 GB at a compound annual growth rate of 13%, he added.