Telecom Industry Analysis- Post 5G

Presenting the opening keynote on the telecom industry analysis, at the recently held TLF %G conference by Voice&Data, Peeyush Vaish, Partner & Telecom Sector Leader, Deloitte India, said the government has been very supportive of the reforms. 5G offers vastly improved network characteristics over previous generations. India will start with the Rel-16 version. Rel-16 made 5G more suitable for deployments in industrial environments, enabling the potential for private captive networks. Some of the countries where 5G has been rolled out such as Korea and the USA had to invest lot more in 5G.

487 MNOs have invested in 5G so far. 99 MNOs in 50 countries have invested in 5G. 187 MNOs have launched 5G mobile services. 20 operators in 16 countries have launched 5G standalone services. There has been 155% increase of commercial devices in a year (2020 vs. 2021). Roughly 50% of global subscriptions are going to be around 5G, with about 40% in India. Revenues from B2B segment are going to be far more than what previous generations provided.

We are now fostering innovation with 5G. Countries such as Germany, Finland, UK, USA, Sweden, South Korea, Hong Kong, Malaysia, Australia, Japan, etc., have earmarked spectrum for private networks in the mid-band (3.3-3.67GHz) and 28GHz mmWave band.

13 cities across India have been identified for primary and secondary phase of 5G rollout. Allocation of spectrum and conclusion of trials have been completed by all three major providers. Initial commercial launch is expected, starting Oct. 2022. Between 2023-2040, 5G technologies will contribute approximately $450 billion (0.6% of GDP by 2040).

Although current accelerated 5G development investments in mature markets, it will not be sustainable in the long-term. 5G network infrastructure spend will peak by 2023/24. Infrastructure investment in India is expected to be staggered. There will be nearly 7.5 billion smartphones by 2025 globally, with 1.2 billion in India. Mobile global average usage per smartphone will reach 11.4GB. 5G subscriptions are forecast to reach 4.4 billion globally by 2027, and 5G subscription uptake will be faster than 4G. The Indian MNO will generate $17 billion in incremental revenue. In 2022, 3GPP Rel-17 will roll out. Mass rollout of 5G standalone core network will also take place in Europe.