There will be 5.5 billion mobile users by 2020: Cisco

NEW DELHI: Since 2000, when the first camera phone was introduced, the number of mobile users has quintupled. By 2020, there will be 5.5 billion mobile users, representing 70 percent of the global population, according to the Cisco Visual Networking Index (VNI) Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast (2015 to 2020).

The adoption of mobile devices, increased mobile coverage, and demand for mobile content are driving user growth two times faster than the global population over the next five years. This surge of mobile users, smart devices, mobile video and 4G networks will increase mobile data traffic eight-fold over the next five years.

Smart mobile devices and connections are projected to represent 72 percent of total mobile devices and connections by 2020—up from 36 percent in 2015. Smart devices are forecasted to generate 98 percent of mobile data traffic by 2020. From an individual device perspective, smartphones are dominating mobile traffic.

“They will account for 81 percent of total mobile traffic by 2020—up from 76 percent in 2015. The proliferation of mobile phones, including “phablets” (a hybrid blend of smartphone and tablet features), is increasing so rapidly that more people will have mobile phones (5.4 billion) than electricity (5.3 billion), running water (3.5 billion) and cars (2.8 billion) by 2020,” it said.

Mobile video will have the highest growth rate of any mobile application. Consumer and business users’ demand for higher video resolution, more bandwidth, and processing speed will increase the use of 4G connected devices. 4G connectivity share is projected to surpass 2G by 2018 and 3G by 2020. 4G will represent more than 70 percent of all mobile traffic, and 4G connections will generate nearly six times more traffic per month than non-4G connections by 2020.

“Used extensively by consumer as well as enterprise segments, with impressive uptakes in both developed and emerging markets, mobility has proved to be transformational. The number of mobile subscribers is growing rapidly, and bandwidth demand for data and video is increasing.  Mobile M2M connections continue to increase. The next 5 years are projected to provide unabated mobile video adoption,” said Sanjay Kaul, Managing Director, Service Provider Business, Cisco India & SAARC.

“Considering all of this, backhaul capacity must increase so mobile broadband, data access, and video services can effectively support consumer usage trends and keep mobile infrastructure costs in check. Deploying next-generation mobile networks requires great deal of programmability, automation and service agility. With the proliferation of mobile and portable devices, there is an imminent need for networks to allow all these devices to be connected transparently, with the network providing high-performance computing and delivering enhanced real-time video and multimedia. This openness will broaden the range of applications and services that can be shared, creating a highly enhanced mobile broadband experience” said Kaul.

Mobile Data Traffic Projections and Trends: India Findings:

Mobile Users and Mobile Data Traffic
• In India, there were 798.4 Million (61% of India's population) mobile users in 2015, up 8% from 737.5 Million (58% of India's population) in 2014. This will reach 990.2 Million (71% of India's population) mobile users by 2020.

• In India, mobile data traffic will grow 12-fold from 2015 to 2020, a compound annual growth rate of 63% and reach 1.7 Exabytes per month by 2020 (the equivalent of 430 million DVDs each month), up from 148.9 Petabytes per month in 2015.

• In India, mobile data traffic will account for 34% of Indian fixed and mobile data traffic by 2020, up from 11% in 2015 and mobile data traffic will grow 2 times faster than fixed IP traffic from 2015 to 2020.

• In India, 54% of mobile connections will be 'smart' connections by 2020, up from 11% in 2015 and 92% of mobile data traffic will be 'smart' traffic by 2020, up from 53% in 2015. In India, mobile traffic per mobile-connected end-user device will reach 1,352 megabytes per month by 2020, up from 149 megabytes per month in 2015, a CAGR of 55%.

• In 2015, The top 1% of mobile users generate 7% of mobile data traffic, down from 52% at the beginning of 2010 and the top 20% of mobile users generate more than half (59%) of the mobile data traffic per month.

Connections by Network Type: In India, 4G connections will grow 86-fold from 2015 to 2020, a compound annual growth rate of 144% and reach 26.2% of total mobile connections by 2020, compared to 0.4% in 2015. 3G connections will be 52.6% of total mobile connections by 2020, compared to 15.7% in 2015. And 2G connections will be 19.7% of total mobile connections by 2020, compared to 83.9% in 2015

Consumer and Business Use: In 2015, India's consumer mobile data traffic grew 1.9-fold, or 90% and is expected to grow 11.6-fold from 2015 to 2020, a compound annual growth rate of 63%. India's business mobile data traffic grew 1.9-fold, or 85% and is expected to grow 11.2-fold from 2015 to 2020, a compound annual growth rate of 62%. Consumers will account for 90% of India’s Mobile data traffic, while business will account for 10% by 2020

Mobile Applications: In India, mobile video traffic will grow 20.8-fold from 2015 to 2020, a compound annual growth rate of 83% and reach 1.2 Exabytes per month by 2020, up from 59.8 Petabytes per month in 2015. Video will be 72% of India's mobile data traffic by 2020, compared to 40% at the end of 2015; while Streaming Audio will be 7% of India's mobile data traffic by 2020, compared to 10% at the end of 2015. Filesharing will be 2% of India's mobile data traffic by 2020 and Web and other data will be 19% of India's mobile data traffic by 2020, compared to 48% at the end of 2015.

Mobile Connection Speeds: In India, the average mobile connection speed was 1,016 kbps in 2015. This average mobile connection speed will grow 3.1-fold (25% CAGR) from 2015 to 2020, reaching 3,122 kbps by 2020.